Aegent's Forecast of Ontario Electricity Price Increase: An Update

April 2012

In the summer of 2010, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters commissioned Aegent Energy Advisors to develop a five-year Ontario electricity price increase forecast. The study looked at the period from mid-2010 to mid-2015. It was first submitted in August 2010 as evidence in a Hydro One Networks rate case at the Ontario Energy Board (OEB) and then later in the year in an Ontario Power Generation rate case.

The forecast price increase for residential consumers was $61.19/MWh or 6.11 cents/kWh. In November 2010, the Ontario Government released its Long Term Energy Plan, which included a 2010-2015 price increase forecast of $63/MWh or 6.3 cents/kWh for residential consumers.

In early 2012, Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters and four other diverse customer groups engaged Aegent to provide an update to its 2010 work, this time looking at the period from the end of 2011 to the end of 2016. In March 2012, the report was submitted as part of the OEB's initiative concerning "A Renewed Regulatory Framework for Electricity".

Aegent's current 2011-2016 forecast price increase for residential consumers is $58.52/MWh or 5.85 cents/kWh. The forecast for small to medium commercial and industrial consumers is the same except it does not include HST; it is $51.78/MWh or 5.18 cents/kWh. The components of the forecast cost increase for this latter group are set out in the table below.

HOEP: Hourly Ontario Energy Price GA, existing: Global Adjustment, existing arrangements GA, new RE: Global Adjustment, new Renewabke Energy GA, other: Global Adjustment, other additions TX, DX, WMSC: transmission, distribution, Wholesale Market Service Charge

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